[Re-Running] Bitcoin Fair value: A First Assessment

Bitcoin Marketcap

$1.21T

Gold Marketcap

$14.55T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$12.90B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.17%

logo CASEBITCOIN making the case for bitcoin every day

KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$64,215 📈

+$821.48

+1.30%

S&P 500

4,963 📉

-39.76

-0.79%

Gold

$2,392 📈

+$8.72

+0.37%

Silver

$28.54 📈

+$0.20

+0.71%

Euro

$1.0666 📈

+$0.00

+0.03%

Yen

¥154.52 📉

-¥0.07

-0.05%

Renminbi (CNY)

¥7.2402

+¥0.00

+0.02%

Oil (WTI)

$82.64 📈

+$0.22

+0.27%

BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$1.21T

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.17%

% Supply Issued

90.03%

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$12.90B

Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$33.99B

Active Addresses

1.02M

Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$59.1M

GBTC Premium

293.41%

MSTR Premium

61.12%

BTC Down From ATH

12.88%

BTC Up From Cycle Low

7.74%

RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

5.45% 📈

UST 2yr

4.93% 📉

-0.04

-0.8%

UST 10yr

4.59% 📉

-0.08

-1.71%

UST 30yr

4.71% 📉

-0.06

-1.26%

Fed Funds (EFFR)

5.33% 📈

US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.40% 📈

+0.01

+0.42%

Real Rate (10yr)

2.19% 📉

-0.09

-3.95%

RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

11.98x

-0.12

-0.95%

M2:BTC (marketcap)

17.12x

-0.22

-1.26%

BTC:Oil (price)

777.05x

+8.17

+1.06%

Gold:Oil (price)

28.98x

-0.05

-0.17%

US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$7.41T 📉

-1.45%

M1 Money Supply

$17.94T 📉

-0.25%

M2 Money Supply

$20.78T 📈

+$1.80B

+0.01%

BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+126%

+20%

+21%

2 year:

+58%

+26%

+12%

3 year:

+17%

+34%

+20%

4 year:

+823%

+41%

+76%

5 year:

+1,115%

+87%

+72%

6 year:

+629%

+78%

+87%

7 year:

+5,107%

+86%

+110%

8 year:

+14,254%

+93%

+138%

9 year:

+27,364%

+101%

+136%

10 year:

+13,051%

+86%

+166%

11 year:

+47,697%

+69%

+220%

12 year:

+1.3 million%

+46%

+263%

13 year:

+3.8 million%

+59%

+273%

14 year:

+2.1 billion%

+109%

+310%

https://casebitcoin.com

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$70,000

0.18%

$64,215

0.82%

$60,000

1.63%

$50,000

210

3.76%

$40,000

461

8.26%

$30,000

706

12.64%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

THE BITCOIN LIBRARY

10 Jan 2014 | Dan McArdle | Price when published: $839.14 (ROI since: +7,553%)