Bitcoin Marketcap

$1.12T

Gold Marketcap

$10.58T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$13.26B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$59,920  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$798.54

+1.35%


S&P 500

4,113  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+14.32

+0.35%


Gold

$1,741  ๐Ÿ“‰

-$4.28

-0.25%


Silver

$25.22  ๐Ÿ“‰

-$0.01

-0.04%


Euro

$1.1900  ๐Ÿ“‰

-$0

-0.01%


Yen

ยฅ109.75  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+ยฅ0.09

+0.08%


Renminbi (CNY)

ยฅ6.5530   

+ยฅ-0.00

-0.00%


Oil (WTI)

$59.54  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$0.19

+0.32%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$1.12T


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%


% Supply Issued

88.94%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$13.26B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$5.55B


Active Addresses

1.16M


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$54.9M


GBTC Premium

-10.04%


MSTR Premium

13.10%


BTC Down From ATH

2.16%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

18.37%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.01%  ๐Ÿ“‰

-0.01

-50%


UST 2yr

0.16%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0

0%


UST 10yr

1.68%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0.01

+0.60%


UST 30yr

2.35%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0.03

+1.29%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.07%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0

0%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.31%  ๐Ÿ“‰

-0.02

-0.86%


Real Rate (10yr)

-0.63%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0

0%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

9.46x   

-0.15

-1.58%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

17.35x   

-0.25

-1.4%


BTC:Oil (price)

1,006x   

+11.54

+1.16%


Gold:Oil (price)

29.24x   

-0.15

-0.51%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$7.71T  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$129B

+1.70%


M1 Money Supply

$18.41T  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$292B

+1.61%


M2 Money Supply

$19.41T  ๐Ÿ“‰

 

-0.68%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+766%

-0.62%

+48%

2 year:

+1,084%

+35%

+41%

3 year:

+658%

+29%

+54%

4 year:

+4,939%

+35%

+76%

5 year:

+14,062%

+41%

+97%

6 year:

+27,249%

+46%

+96%

7 year:

+12,144%

+33%

+124%

8 year:

+70,665%

+16%

+159%

9 year:

+1,212,922%

+5%

+200%

10 year:

+5,906,074%

+18%

+214%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$60,000

2

0.04%

$59,908

2

0.04%

$50,000

43

0.96%

$40,000

65

1.45%

$30,000

100

2.23%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

WHY BITCOIN, WHY NOW?

Bitcoin is a scarce digital asset with an unchangeable monetary policy. Its rate of inflation is currently under 2% and decreasing, ultimately to zero. Only 21million BTC will ever exist, with ~18.6million in existence today. It is fundamentally independent of the fiat money system, yet is a liquid, globally tradeable asset. BTC is convertible to over 150 national currencies 24/7, and can be self-stored or custodied with 3rd parties, including with qualified custodians. Bitcoin can be traded on venues ranging from peer-to-peer services, to large regulated US institutional brokerages and exchanges.

Bitcoin vs Select Indexes & Assets

Bitcoin's ROI performance, as well as risk-adjusted return, has outperformed most benchmarks over most time-frames.

 

Marketcap

Price

Volume
24hr

Inflation
Next 1yr

Inflation
Next 10yrs

ROI
1yr

CAGR
10yr

Volatility
1yr

Sharpe
1yr

Sharpe
5yr


Bitcoin

$1.12T

$59,906

$5.55B

1.80%

10.34%

766.07%

200.01%

0.47

4.83

2.08


Gold

$10.58T

$1,741

~$4.54B

1.52%

15.18%

-0.62%

1.63%

0.12

0.18

0.55


S&P 500

~$34.67T

$4,113

--

--

--

47.77%

12.13%

0.16

2.66

0.99


USTs (TLT)

--

$137.52

--

--

--

-16.31%

4.05%

0.11

-1.49

0.04


https://casebitcoin.com

BITCOIN & MACRO NEWS

Grayscale Says They Are 'Committed' To Turning GBTC Into an ETF

Grayscale Investments - the manager of the Bitcoin Investment Trust, which trades as GBTC on US markets - today announced their intention to ultimately turn GBTC into a proper Bitcoin ETF.


They said:

Today, we remain committed to converting GBTC into an ETF although the timing will be driven by the regulatory environment. When GBTC converts to an ETF, shareholders of publicly-traded GBTC shares will not need to take action and the management fee will be reduced accordingly.


The GBTC product in its current form is not a traditional ETF. It is a closed-end fund with no redemption mechanism for the underlying BTC; thus fluid two-sided arbitrage cannot be done. This has caused GBTC to trade at a significant premium (at times in excess of 100%) to spot BTC throughout most of its life. In recent weeks, though, the premium has gone negative as GBTC both faces more competition as a publicly-listed instrument for BTC exposure (see $MSTR, $BTCC), and big-pocket firms participating in a carry-trade of sorts to bring the premium down.


Grayscale's statement of intent to covert to an ETF when the "regulatory environment" is right is not surprising; given that the underlying Trust and GBTC product, as currently formed, may lose competitive advantage if and when the SEC (finally) approves proper Bitcoin ETF products.

tldr

  • Historically GBTC has been the preferred vehicle for retail investors to gain exposure to BTC via public markets
  • GBTC has historically traded at a large premium (generally 10-50%) to spot; thus costing retail investors money
  • The SEC looks set to approve a Bitcoin ETF sometime in the next 12-18 months, which will put pressure on GBTC
  • Converting GBTC to an ETF is a natural response to regulatory and market developments, including more competition and the recent weeks of significantly negative premium on GBTC vs spot.

LEARN ABOUT BITCOIN

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. Itโ€™s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or whatโ€™s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

Common Critique #3
Bitcoin is Too Volatile

Critique:  Bitcoin is too volatile to be a useful currency or store-of-value.

Rebuttal:  It's true that bitcoin historically has very high trading volatility. This is not a surprise for an asset whose market cap has grown to hundreds of billions of dollars, from... more

WHAT MONEY MANAGERS ARE SAYING

inigo-fraser-jenkins

Inigo Fraser Jenkins
Co-Head, Portfolio Strategy at AllianceBernstein

โ€œ...post-pandemic changes to the policy environment, debt levels and diversification options for investors mean the asset manger now has 'to admit [bitcoin] does' have a role in asset allocation, at least over the long term....โ€ more

rick-rieder

Rick Rieder
CIO, BlackRock Global Fixed Income & Head of Global Allocation

โ€œDo I think [bitcoin] is a durable mechanism that will take the place of gold to a large extent? Yeah I do......โ€ more

BITCOIN LIBRARY

THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

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