Bitcoin Marketcap

$784B

Gold Marketcap

$11.03T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$4.39B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%

logo CASEBITCOIN making the case for bitcoin every day

KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$41,763  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$161.05

+0.39%


S&P 500

4,396  ๐Ÿ“‰

-2.8

-0.06%


Gold

$1,814  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$0.25

+0.01%


Silver

$25.46  ๐Ÿ“‰

-$0.01

-0.02%


Euro

$1.1867  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$0

0%


Yen

ยฅ109.69  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+ยฅ0

0%


Renminbi (CNY)

ยฅ6.4615   

+ยฅ0

0%


Oil (WTI)

$73.64  ๐Ÿ“‰

-$0.11

-0.15%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$784B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%


% Supply Issued

89.39%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$4.39B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$4.21B


Active Addresses

720,022


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$38.2M


GBTC Premium

-6.72%


MSTR Premium

39.08%


BTC Down From ATH

35.34%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

42.86%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.06%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0.01

+20.00%


UST 2yr

0.20%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0

0%


UST 10yr

1.26%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0.01

+0.80%


UST 30yr

1.90%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0.01

+0.53%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.10%  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+0

0%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.40%  ๐Ÿ“‰

-0.03

-1.23%


Real Rate (10yr)

-1.14%  ๐Ÿ“‰

+0.03

+-2.56%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

14.06x   

-0.05

-0.38%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

26.00x   

-0.1

-0.38%


BTC:Oil (price)

567.26x   

+2.71

+0.48%


Gold:Oil (price)

24.57x   

-0.03

-0.13%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$8.22T  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$143B

+1.77%


M1 Money Supply

$19.27T  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$46.40B

+0.24%


M2 Money Supply

$20.39T  ๐Ÿ“ˆ

+$18.80B

+0.09%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+261%

-9%

+34%

2 year:

+292%

+25%

+53%

3 year:

+452%

+49%

+55%

4 year:

+1,421%

+42%

+77%

5 year:

+7,472%

+33%

+104%

6 year:

+14,760%

+67%

+109%

7 year:

+7,012%

+40%

+127%

8 year:

+43,550%

+38%

+157%

9 year:

+386,606%

+13%

+219%

10 year:

+416,938%

+10%

+266%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$50,000

73

1.59%

$41,784

101

2.20%

$40,000

109

2.37%

$30,000

210

4.57%

$20,000

228

4.97%

$10,000

533

11.61%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

WHY BITCOIN, WHY NOW?

Bitcoin is a scarce digital asset with an unchangeable monetary policy. Its rate of inflation is currently under 2% and decreasing, ultimately to zero. Only 21million BTC will ever exist, with ~18.6million in existence today. It is fundamentally independent of the fiat money system, yet is a liquid, globally tradeable asset. BTC is convertible to over 150 national currencies 24/7, and can be self-stored or custodied with 3rd parties, including with qualified custodians. Bitcoin can be traded on venues ranging from peer-to-peer services, to large regulated US institutional brokerages and exchanges.

Bitcoin vs Select Indexes & Assets

Bitcoin's ROI performance, as well as risk-adjusted return, has outperformed most benchmarks over most time-frames.

 

Marketcap

Price

Volume
24hr

Inflation
Next 1yr

Inflation
Next 10yrs

ROI
1yr

CAGR
10yr

Volatility
1yr

Sharpe
1yr

Sharpe
5yr


Bitcoin

$784B

$41,784

$4.21B

1.79%

10.34%

260.54%

130.15%

0.53

2.75

1.78


Gold

$11.03T

$1,814

~$4.54B

1.52%

15.18%

-9.21%

0.95%

0.11

-0.64

0.48


S&P 500

~$37.06T

$4,396

--

--

--

33.57%

13.87%

0.13

2.41

1.01


NASDAQ

~$20.38T

$14,668

--

--

--

34.87%

19.09%

0.18

2.01

1.26


USTs (TLT)

--

$149.48

--

--

--

-11.86%

3.81%

0.10

-1.25

0.06


https://casebitcoin.com

BITCOIN & MACRO NEWS

Paul Tudor Jones Targets 5% Allocation to BTC

In a CNBC interview this morning, Paul Tudor Jones emphasized that he likes BTC due its certainty, stating:

I like bitcoin. Right? Bitcoin is math. And math has been around for thousands of years. And two plus two is gonna equal four and it will for the next 2000 years. So I like idea of investing in something that's reliable, consistent, honest, and 100% certain. So bitcoin has appeal to me because it's a way for me to invest in certainty.

story image


He went on to contrast bitcoin's certainty with the Federal Reserve, and US politics:

I look at the difference between the Fed at 2013, the Fed at 2021. How can this...do I want to have to faith necessarily....I look at the difference between Trump and Biden...do I want to have faith in that same reliability of human nature?

Finally, Mr Jones suggested a 5% bitcoin position as one of the few holdings he has sufficient conviction in given uncertainty surrounding Fed policy:

I like bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier... The only thing that I know for certain is that I want to have 5% in gold, 5% in bitcoin, 5% in cash, 5% in commodities, at this point in time. I don't know what I want to do with the other 80%. I want to wait and see what the Fed's gonna do, because what they do will have a big impact.

tldr

  • Paul Tudor was one of the first big-name investors following the March 2020 covid crash to publicly embrace bitcoin, and position it as an important macro asset.
  • Bitcoin is known to be price-volatile, yet Mr Jones correctly highlights Bitcoin's monetary policy certainty
  • Mr Jones is clearly still thinking of bitcoin as a key macro asset given both central bank and political uncertainty, and his emphasis may carry weight with other investors
  • If anything, his conviction appears to have risen since first diligencing bitcoin last year, now citing BTC as one of just 4 positions he has sufficient conviction to hold in the current macro environment.

LEARN ABOUT BITCOIN

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. Itโ€™s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or whatโ€™s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

Common Critique #5
Bitcoin is Used By Criminals

Critique:  Bitcoin is used by drug dealers and money launderers; therefore it is bad.

Rebuttal:  Bitcoin has received a lot of press about criminal use, largely due to the novel darkweb marketplaces, such as Silk Road (now defunct), which used bitcoin as... more

WHAT MONEY MANAGERS ARE SAYING

druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller

โ€œWhen you look at the extraordinary measures take by the fed, and the fact that they're monetizing the debt, I think it's a high probability that we get inflation, the next 5 or 6 years, starting in a year or two. The economy could run very hot. At the same time, all the stimulus is in the pipeline. With regard to gold and bitcoin....I do own a tiny bit of...โ€ more

vimal-gor

Vimal Gor
Pendal Group Head of Bond, Income, and Defensive Strategies

โ€œAll the big hitters in the hedge fund world are coming out to endorse bitcoin. ... We have been positioning in gold for our clients for many, many years now. Now weโ€™re doing it with bitcoin...โ€ more

BITCOIN LIBRARY

THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

MOST RECENTLY ADDED

We're adding to the library constantly. These are the newest additions.