Bitcoin Marketcap

$916B

Gold Marketcap

$10.55T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$13.48B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$49,140  πŸ“ˆ

+$88.60

+0.18%


S&P 500

3,876  πŸ“‰

-22.08

-0.57%


Gold

$1,735  πŸ“ˆ

+$20.88

+1.22%


Silver

$26.67  πŸ“ˆ

+$0.54

+2.06%


Euro

$1.2090  πŸ“ˆ

+$0.01

+0.56%


Yen

Β₯106.86  πŸ“ˆ

+Β₯0.08

+0.08%


Renminbi (CNY)

Β₯6.4643   

-Β₯0.01

-0.09%


Oil (WTI)

$59.87  πŸ“‰

-$0.05

-0.08%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$916B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%


% Supply Issued

88.77%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$13.48B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$7.44B


Active Addresses

1.07M


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$45.0M


GBTC Premium

-2.06%


MSTR Premium

42.34%


BTC Down From ATH

15.52%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

13.83%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.05%  πŸ“ˆ

+0.01

+25.00%


UST 2yr

0.14%  πŸ“‰

-0.03

-17.65%


UST 10yr

1.44%  πŸ“‰

-0.1

-6.49%


UST 30yr

2.17%  πŸ“‰

-0.16

-6.87%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.07%  πŸ“ˆ

+0

0%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

11.51x   

+0.12

+1.05%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

21.20x   

+0.00

+0.00%


BTC:Oil (price)

821.01x   

+1.19

+0.14%


Gold:Oil (price)

28.98x   

+0.38

+1.33%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$7.59T  πŸ“ˆ

+$185B

+2.50%


M1 Money Supply

$6.81T  πŸ“ˆ

+$13.80B

+0.20%


M2 Money Supply

$19.41T  πŸ“‰

 

-0.68%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+462%

+6%

+26%

2 year:

+1,205%

+34%

+39%

3 year:

+328%

+31%

+44%

4 year:

+3,796%

+42%

+63%

5 year:

+12,100%

+37%

+94%

6 year:

+18,009%

+47%

+86%

7 year:

+7,252%

+29%

+107%

8 year:

+128,208%

+10%

+153%

9 year:

+1,003,964%

+2%

+186%

10 year:

+5,530,938%

+21%

+194%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$50,000

6

0.14%

$49,140

9

0.20%

$40,000

25

0.56%

$30,000

60

1.35%

$20,000

77

1.73%

$10,000

382

8.60%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

Money Manager Views

Some of the world's most respected investors, and biggest funds by AUM, have expressed positive views, or institutional support, for bitcoin in 2020. Many are cataloged here:

Paul Tudor Jones

Paul Tudor Jones - Founder, Tudor Investments
(total AUM: $38.4 billion)

At the end of the day, the best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse. Just own the best performer and not get wed to an intellectual side that might leave you weeping in the performance dust because you thought you were smarter than the market. If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin. Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got in the business in 1976.

6 May 2020, source

I like bitcoin even more now than I did then. I think we are in the first inning of bitcoin and it’s got a long way to go. Bitcoin has this enormous contingence of really, really smart and sophisticated people who believe in it ... It’s like investing with Steve Jobs and Apple or investing in Google early. I've never had an inflation hedge where you have a kicker that you also have great intellectual capital behind it, so that makes me even more constructive on [bitcoin].

22 Oct 2020, source

Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller

When you look at the extraordinary measures take by the fed, and the fact that they're monetizing the debt, I think it's a high probability that we get inflation, the next 5 or 6 years, starting in a year or two. The economy could run very hot. At the same time, all the stimulus is in the pipeline. With regard to gold and bitcoin....I do own a tiny bit of it, but I own a lot more gold.

I have warmed up to the fact that bitcoin could be an asset class that has a lot of attraction as a store of value to both millennials and new the new west coast money, and as you know they've got a lot of it. It's been around for 13yrs, and with each passing day, it picks up more, more of its stabilization as a brand... Frankly if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better.

9 Nov 2020, source

Bill Miller

Bill Miller - Founder, Miller Value Funds
(total AUM: $2.7B)

Some of the great investors of our time, Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, are gold bulls. Many people, if they're not gold bulls, they at least believe that it's possible inflation comes back with the Fed gunning the money supply here, and with more fiscal stimulus. I think it's reasonable to own gold.

With respect to bitcoin...it's been a great month for bitcoin, but it's also been a great year, year to date, 3 yrears, 5 years, 10 years, and then inception, bitcoin's inception was 12 years ago, and it's been the single best performing asset category in every one of those periods. Not that it hasn't had a bad time, it went from nearly $20,000 down to the $3000-$4000 range, so it's been very volatile. But I think right now it's staying power gets better every day. I think the risks of bitcoin going to zero are much much lower than they've ever been before. And you're getting greater adoption. I mean, you know, MicroStrategy put half their cash, $400mm into bitcoin. Paypal announced that people can buy bitcoin. Square had blow out numbers yesterday due to their sales and demand for bitcoin. And the bitcoin story is very easy, which is that its supply demand it's it's economics, not 101, point 01, which is that bitcoin's supply is growing at about 2.5% per year, and the demand is growing faster than that. And there's gonna be a fixed number of them. So I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is gonna eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what's like it.

6 Nov 2020, source

Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio - Founder, Co-CIO, Bridgewater Associates
(total AUM: $138B)

So [bitcoin] could serve as a diversifier to gold and other such storehold of wealth assets. The main thing is to have some of these type of assets (with limited supply, that are mobile, and that are storeholds of wealth)

8 Dec 2020, source

Rick Rieder

Rick Rieder - CIO, BlackRock Global Fixed Income & Head of Global Allocation
(total AUM: $7.3T)

Do I think [bitcoin] is a durable mechanism that will take the place of gold to a large extent? Yeah I do...

20 Nov 2020, source

Inigo Fraser Jenkins

Inigo Fraser Jenkins - Co-Head, Portfolio Strategy at AllianceBernstein
(total AUM: $600B)

...post-pandemic changes to the policy environment, debt levels and diversification options for investors mean the asset manger now has 'to admit [bitcoin] does' have a role in asset allocation, at least over the long term.

1 Dec 2020, source

Scott Minerd

Scott Minerd - CIO, Guggenheim Global
(total AUM: $233B)

Our fundamental work shows that bitcoin should be worth about 400,000 dollars...

It's based on the scarcity and relative valuation to things like gold as a % of GDP. So bitcoin actually has a lot of the attributes of gold and at the same time has an unusual value in terms of transactions.

16 Dec 2020, source

Guggenheim Funds - managing a total $233B - filed an amendment with the SEC to allow their subsidiary Guggenheim Macro Opportunities Fund, with ~$5B under management, to be able to invest up to 10% of the fund into GBTC.

28 Nov 2020, source

Christopher Wood

Christopher Wood - Global Head of Equity Strategy, Jefferies Group
(total AUM: $5.6B)

The 50 per cent weight in physical gold bullion in the portfolio will be reduced for the first time in several years by five percentage points with the money invested in Bitcoin. If there is a big drawdown in bitcoin from the current level, after the historic breakout above the $20,000 level, the intention will be to add to this position.

18 Dec 2020, source

Vimal Gor

Vimal Gor - Pendal Group Head of Bond, Income, and Defensive Strategies
(total AUM: $73.6B)

All the big hitters in the hedge fund world are coming out to endorse bitcoin. ... We have been positioning in gold for our clients for many, many years now. Now we’re doing it with bitcoin

23 Nov 2020, source

Anthony Scaramucci

Anthony Scaramucci - Founder - SkyBridge Capital
(total AUM: $9.3B)

SkyBridge filed with the SEC to form a subsidiary named "SkyBridge Bitcoin Fund L.P."

21 Dec 2020, source

Mass Mutual
(total AUM: $567B)

As reported by the Wall St Journal, 'Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. bought $100 million of bitcoin for its general investment account, the latest sign of mainstream acceptance for the upstart digital currency.' It is a very small fraction (0.04%) of the total account ($235B), but a significant milestone for BTC to be included at all in the investment universe for the general investment account of a typically very conservative 170yr old insurance firm.

10 Dec 2020, source

Ruffer Investment Co
(total AUM: Β£20B)

Ruffer added Β£550 million worth of Bitcoin to their overall portfolio, stating:

"One recent addition, via one of the specialist managers appointed within the Ruffer Multi-Strategies Fund, has been bitcoin. This is primarily a defensive move, one made in November after reducing the company's exposure to gold.

The exposure to bitcoin is currently equivalent to around 2.5% of the portfolio. We see this as a small but potent insurance policy against the continuing devaluation of the world's major currencies. Bitcoin diversifies the company's (much larger) investments in gold and inflation-linked bonds, and acts as a hedge to some of the monetary and market risks that we see."

15 Dec 2020, source

One River Asset Management
(total AUM: $3.64B)

One River Asset Management CEO Eric Peters recently said that "he set up a new company to seize on the growing interest in cryptocurrencies among institutional investors." One River has already purchased $600mm in bitcoin and ether, and intends to upsize to $1 billion by early 2021.

Peters elaborated:
"There is going to be a generational allocation to this new asset class. The flows have only just begun."

16 Dec 2020, source

Fidelity Digital Assets
(total AUM: $3.3T)

Fidelity has been supportive of bitcoin since 2015. In Oct 2018, Fidelity announced the formation of Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary dedicated to digital assets like Bitcoin, including institutional-grade services for custody, execution, and research.

2015+, source

Citibank - Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director
(total AUM: $250B)

Bitcoin is the new Gold. It is an asset with limited supply. It is digital (This is the 21st century- Gold is a 20th century asset). It moves across borders easily and ownership is opaque. That last point is, I believe, very relevant. The huge Fiscal deterioration of today has a cost in the future, either directly or indirectly. Directly it is that at some point the 'bills have to be paid' which means at some time in the future the money needs to be found. While Bitcoin may become subject to more regulatory constraints going forward it is a natural store of 'money' to avoid this. Indirectly the argument can be the debasement of FIAT currencies by creating high nominal growth and inflation.

You look at price action being much more symmetrical over the past 7 years or so (while still huge numbers) forming what looks like a very well defined channel giving us an up move of similar timeframe to the last rally. Such an argument would stuggest that this move could potentially peak in December 2021, at the high of the channel, suggesting a move as high as $318k. Improbable though that seems it would only be a low to high rally of 102 times (the weakest rally so far in percentage terms) at a point where the arguments in favour of Bitcoin could well be at their most persuasive ever.

15 Nov 2020, source

JPMorgan

What makes the October flow trajectory for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust even more impressive is its contrast with the equivalent flow trajectory for gold ETFs, which overall saw modest outflows since mid-October... This contrast lends support to the idea that some investors that previously invested in gold ETFs such as family offices, may be looking at bitcoin as an alternative to gold

7 Nov 2020, source

The adoption of bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun, while for gold its adoption by institutional investors is very advanced

9 Dec 2020, source




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