Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity
PlanB quantifies bitcoin's stock-to-flow ("s2f") ratio, and compares it to precious metals. He finds a strong relationship between s2f and price, and uses this model to predict bitcoin's future trading ranges.
EXCERPT
Bitcoin is the first scarce digital object the world has ever seen, it is scarce like silver & gold, and can be sent over the internet, radio, satellite etc.
Surely this digital scarcity has value. But how much? In this article I quantify scarcity using stock-to-flow, and use stock-to-flow to model bitcoin’s value.
A statistically significant relationship between stock-to-flow and market value exists. The likelihood that the relationship between stock-to-flow and market value is caused by chance is close to zero.
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