Bitcoin Marketcap

$784B

Gold Marketcap

$11.03T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$4.39B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$41,788  📈

+$92.72

+0.22%


S&P 500

4,396  📉

-2.8

-0.06%


Gold

$1,814  📉

-$0.38

-0.02%


Silver

$25.47  📈

+$0.00

+0.01%


Euro

$1.1867  📈

+$0.00

0.00%


Yen

¥109.69  📈

+¥0

0%


Renminbi (CNY)

¥6.4615   

+¥0

0%


Oil (WTI)

$73.65  📈

+$0

0%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$784B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%


% Supply Issued

89.39%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$4.39B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$4.14B


Active Addresses

720,022


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$38.3M


GBTC Premium

-6.72%


MSTR Premium

39.08%


BTC Down From ATH

35.38%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

42.89%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.06%  📈

+0.01

+20.00%


UST 2yr

0.20%  📈

+0

0%


UST 10yr

1.26%  📈

+0.01

+0.80%


UST 30yr

1.90%  📈

+0.01

+0.53%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.10%  📈

+0

0%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.40%  📉

-0.03

-1.23%


Real Rate (10yr)

-1.14%  📉

+0.03

+-2.56%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

14.06x   

-0.02

-0.13%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

25.99x   

-0.04

-0.13%


BTC:Oil (price)

567.40x   

+0.70

+0.12%


Gold:Oil (price)

24.63x   

-0.01

-0.02%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$8.22T  📈

+$143B

+1.77%


M1 Money Supply

$19.27T  📈

+$46.40B

+0.24%


M2 Money Supply

$20.39T  📈

+$18.80B

+0.09%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+260%

-9%

+34%

2 year:

+292%

+25%

+53%

3 year:

+452%

+49%

+55%

4 year:

+1,421%

+42%

+77%

5 year:

+7,467%

+33%

+104%

6 year:

+14,760%

+67%

+109%

7 year:

+7,012%

+40%

+127%

8 year:

+43,550%

+38%

+157%

9 year:

+386,606%

+13%

+219%

10 year:

+416,672%

+10%

+266%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$50,000

73

1.59%

$41,773

101

2.20%

$40,000

109

2.37%

$30,000

210

4.57%

$20,000

228

4.97%

$10,000

533

11.61%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

Ray Dalio Makes the Case for Massive Reallocation of Bonds to Other Assets


 

In a piece titled "Why in the World Would You Own Bonds When...", Bridgewater (AUM: $150B) Founder and Co-CIO Ray Dalio outlines why he believes the world (and the US in particular) is in the final states of a long-term debt cycle, why that means bonds and cash are "trash", and how to think about positioning for what's to come. He notes: "The economics of investing in bonds (and most financial assets) has become stupid", and goes on to say:

The world is a) substantially overweighted in bonds (and other financial assets, especially US bonds) at the same time that b) governments (especially the US) are producing enormous amounts more debt and bonds and other debt assets. This is particularly true for US bonds.


Further, Dalio notes that there are over $75trillion in "US debt assets of varying maturities", and outlines how a "run on the bank" - an unstoppable wave of bond selling - can start, and what governments ultimately have to be do about it:


History and logic show that central banks, when faced with the supply/demand imbalance situation that would lead interest rates to rise to more than is desirable in light of economic circumstances, will print the money to buy bonds and create “yield curve controls” to put a cap on bond yields and will devalue cash. That makes cash terrible to own and great to borrow.


Dalio ends the article with a note on how policy makers may try and stem the flow out of bonds and into hard assets, and how the optimal portfolio for these times is no longer the traditional 'stock/bond mix':


If history and logic are to be a guide, policy makers who are short of money will raise taxes and won’t like these capital movements out of debt assets and into other storehold of wealth assets and other tax domains so they could very well impose prohibitions against capital movements to other assets (e.g., gold, Bitcoin, etc.) and other locations. These tax changes could be more shocking than expected.
I think this is the new paradigm.
For these reasons I believe a well-diversified portfolio of non-debt and non-dollar assets along with a short cash position is preferable to a traditional stock/bond mix that is heavily skewed to US dollars. I also believe that assets in the mature developed reserve currency countries will underperform the Asian (including Chinese) emerging countries’ markets. I also believe that one should be mindful of tax changes and the possibility of capital controls.

tldr

  • One bull thesis for bitcoin is that it may be a significant beneficiary of changing attitudes regarding the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio; specifically that BTC may be fit to absorb some of the bond side of that allocation
  • Dalio notes that policy makers may try and stop the flow into assets such as gold and bitcoin.
  • One can view this as validation of bitcoin's inflation- & debasement-hedging properties, and it remains to be seen how any government can stem the jurisdictional arbitrage potential of a natively digital, borderless, liquid bearer asset.

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THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

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