Bitcoin Marketcap

$934B

Gold Marketcap

$10.89T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$19.05B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$49,865  📉

 

-8.98%


S&P 500

4,132  📉

-28.04

-0.67%


Gold

$1,790  📈

+$5.09

+0.29%


Silver

$26.23  📉

-$0.16

-0.62%


Euro

$1.2059  📈

+$0.00

+0.07%


Yen

¥107.83  📉

-¥0.2

-0.18%


Renminbi (CNY)

¥6.4920   

+¥0.00

+0.04%


Oil (WTI)

$61.71  📈

+$0.72

+1.18%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$934B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%


% Supply Issued

88.99%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$19.05B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$21.00B


Active Addresses

1.11M


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$45.8M


GBTC Premium

-15.88%


MSTR Premium

4.08%


BTC Down From ATH

22.47%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

1.86%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.03%  📈

+0

0%


UST 2yr

0.15%  📉

-0.01

-6.25%


UST 10yr

1.58%  📉

-0.03

-1.86%


UST 30yr

2.27%  📉

-0.02

-0.87%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.07%  📈

+0

0%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.33%  📈

+0

0%


Real Rate (10yr)

-0.75%  📈

-0.04

-5.63%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

11.67x   

+1.08

+10.25%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

20.79x   

+1.88

+9.96%


BTC:Oil (price)

808.51x   

-91.54

-10.17%


Gold:Oil (price)

29.00x   

-0.26

-0.89%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$7.82T  📈

+$101B

+1.31%


M1 Money Supply

$18.41T  📈

+$292B

+1.61%


M2 Money Supply

$19.41T  📉

 

-0.68%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+579%

+2%

+47%

2 year:

+804%

+40%

+41%

3 year:

+434%

+34%

+55%

4 year:

+3,876%

+40%

+74%

5 year:

+10,804%

+44%

+98%

6 year:

+22,155%

+51%

+95%

7 year:

+10,139%

+37%

+121%

8 year:

+35,277%

+23%

+161%

9 year:

+969,400%

+8%

+196%

10 year:

+2,705,437%

+18%

+206%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$50,000

54

1.20%

$49,893

54

1.20%

$40,000

76

1.69%

$30,000

111

2.47%

$20,000

128

2.85%

$10,000

433

9.64%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

Powell Sees Bitcoin as a Substitute for Gold, Not the Dollar


 

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at an event held by the Bank of International Settlements today. He offered some brief thoughts on bitcoin and crypto-assets generally:


cryptoassets - they're highly volatile - see bitcoin - and therefore not really useful as a store of value, and they're not backed by anything. They're more of an asset for speculation. So they're also not particularly in use as a means of payment; it's more a speculative asset that's essentially a substitute for gold rather than for the dollar. And I think with cryptoassets, the public needs to understand the risks. The principle thing is, there's the volatility, there's also the outsized energy requirements for mining, and the fact that they're not backed by anything.


Chairman Powell's remarks echo previous statements made in 2019 where he described bitcoin as a gold-like "speculative store of value".

tldr

  • Powell's description of bitcoin as a "substitute for gold" is consistent with earlier statements, but also noteworthy in terms of downplaying competition with the dollar.
  • The Fed explicitly *not* viewing BTC as a competitor to the dollar may remove some forms of regulatory risk.
  • We can't help but notice the irony of the Fed Chairman pointing out that bitcoin is "not backed by anything".
  • Chairman Powell touched on several common bitcoin critiques in his 90 second statement: #1, #3, #4, and #8

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THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

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