Bitcoin Marketcap

$1.16T

Gold Marketcap

$10.73T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$9.89B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.78%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$61,256  📈

+$543.66

+0.90%


S&P 500

4,479  📈

+12.92

+0.29%


Gold

$1,765  📉

-$0.46

-0.03%


Silver

$23.20  📉

-$0.1

-0.41%


Euro

$1.1612  📈

+$0.00

+0.11%


Yen

¥114.21  📉

-¥0.06

-0.05%


Renminbi (CNY)

¥6.4296   

-¥0.01

-0.1%


Oil (WTI)

$82.04  📉

-$0.22

-0.27%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$1.16T


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.78%


% Supply Issued

89.75%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$9.89B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$12.54B


Active Addresses

937,355


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$56.2M


GBTC Premium

3.11%


MSTR Premium

13.66%


BTC Down From ATH

5.10%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

109.61%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.05%  📈

+0

0%


UST 2yr

0.36%  📉

-0.01

-2.7%


UST 10yr

1.52%  📉

-0.04

-2.56%


UST 30yr

2.02%  📉

-0.03

-1.46%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.08%  📈

+0

0%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.56%  📈

+0.04

+1.59%


Real Rate (10yr)

-1.04%  📈

+0

0%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

9.29x   

-0.09

-0.99%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

18.01x   

-0.14

-0.79%


BTC:Oil (price)

747.39x   

+8.60

+1.16%


Gold:Oil (price)

21.52x   

+0.05

+0.24%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$8.48T  📈

+$32.17B

+0.38%


M1 Money Supply

$19.68T  📈

+$276B

+1.42%


M2 Money Supply

$20.80T  📈

+$262B

+1.28%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+427%

-7%

+28%

2 year:

+680%

+18%

+50%

3 year:

+870%

+44%

+62%

4 year:

+1,001%

+37%

+75%

5 year:

+9,664%

+39%

+109%

6 year:

+23,065%

+50%

+121%

7 year:

+16,004%

+41%

+136%

8 year:

+37,196%

+34%

+157%

9 year:

+530,006%

+3%

+212%

10 year:

+2,136,466%

+8%

+265%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$70,000

0

0

$61,273

6

0.13%

$60,000

10

0.21%

$50,000

89

1.91%

$40,000

183

3.92%

$30,000

288

6.17%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

Fidelity, Citi, and Goldman Sachs Give Bitcoin a Boost


 

Fidelity, Citi, and Goldman Sachs all made bitcoin headlines today, with Fidelity and Citi releasing extensive (and positive) reports on bitcoin, and Goldman Sachs announcing the restart of their bitcoin trading desk.


Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, tweeted that bitcoin "could be treated as a form of digital gold…a possible counterweight to future monetary inflation:"

story image

Mr Timmer also linked to a paper of his hosted on Fidelity Institutional, which suggests that bitcoin may be an appropriate replacement for some part "of the bond side of a 60/40 portfolio."


Next, Citi GPS released a 108 page report titled "Bitcoin At the Tipping Point". The report's intro notes:

In a search for yield and alternative assets, investors are drawn to Bitcoin's inflation hedging properties and it is recognized as a source of 'digital gold' due to its finite supply. ... Where could Bitcoin be in another seven or so years? The report notes the advantage of Bitcoin in global payments, including its decentralized design, lack of foreign exchange exposure, fast (and potentially cheaper) money movements, secure payment channels, and traceability. These attributes combined with Bitcoin's global reach and neutrality could spur it to become the currency of choice for international trade.

story image


Finally, Reuters is reporting that Goldman Sachs has restarted their cryptocurrency trading desk, beginning with various bitcoin instruments. Reuters notes the bank is also exploring related bitcoin services:

the bank is also exploring the potential for a bitcoin exchange traded fund and has issued a request for information to explore digital asset custody, the source said.

tldr

  • Mr Timmer of Fidelity's suggestion that BTC could replace some part of some investors' bond allocations is striking, given the prevalence of the 60/40 portfolio, and the sheer size of the bond market. Even very small inflows from bonds could have dramatic impact on the BTC price.
  • Citi's positioning of BTC as potentially becoming the preferred vehicle for intentional trade in the future is especially noteworthy. They specifically cite bitcoin's inherently neutral and global nature as key drivers.
  • Goldman Sachs has had an on/off relationship with bitcoin over the years, but they appear to be digging in deeper than previously with the exploration of a possible ETF offering and custody solution.

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THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

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