Bitcoin Marketcap

$1.61T

Gold Marketcap

$18.93T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$12.90B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.17%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$85,100  📈

+$2,720

+3.30%


S&P 500

5,618  📈

+18.13

+0.32%


Gold

$3,112  📉

-$11.28

-0.36%


Silver

$33.73  📉

-$0.3

-0.88%


Euro

$1.0795  📉

-$0

-0.21%


Yen

¥149.80  📉

-¥0.09

-0.06%


Renminbi (CNY)

¥7.2702   

+¥0.01

+0.17%


Oil (WTI)

$71.20  📉

-$0.22

-0.31%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$1.61T


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.17%


% Supply Issued

90.03%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$12.90B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$16.99B


Active Addresses

1.02M


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$78.0M


GBTC Premium

200.86%


MSTR Premium

-80.49%


BTC Down From ATH

21.79%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

11.32%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

4.32%  📉

-0.01

-0.23%


UST 2yr

3.89%  📉

-0.08

-2.02%


UST 10yr

4.27%  📉

-0.11

-2.51%


UST 30yr

4.64%  📉

-0.09

-1.9%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

4.33%  📈

+0

0%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.38%  📈

+0.01

+0.42%


Real Rate (10yr)

2.00%  📈

+0.02

+1.01%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

11.75x   

-0.44

-3.64%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

13.46x   

-0.46

-3.32%


BTC:Oil (price)

1,195x   

+42.27

+3.67%


Gold:Oil (price)

43.73x   

-0.01

-0.03%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$6.74T  📉

 

-0.38%


M1 Money Supply

$18.53T  📈

+$75.40B

+0.41%


M2 Money Supply

$21.67T  📈

+$110B

+0.51%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+21%

+38%

+8%

2 year:

+201%

+58%

+36%

3 year:

+84%

+64%

+23%

4 year:

+45%

+79%

+40%

5 year:

+1,159%

+90%

+125%

6 year:

+1,627%

+140%

+95%

7 year:

+1,076%

+133%

+115%

8 year:

+7,577%

+148%

+138%

9 year:

+20,256%

+155%

+172%

10 year:

+33,480%

+159%

+172%

11 year:

+18,790%

+140%

+203%

12 year:

+64,019%

+99%

+261%

13 year:

+1.7 million%

+91%

+302%

14 year:

+11 million%

+116%

+322%

https://casebitcoin.com

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$90,000

91

1.53%

$85,100

108

1.82%

$80,000

128

2.16%

$70,000

151

2.55%

$60,000

373

6.29%

$50,000

538

9.07%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

sharpe 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

doubling time

Citibank Sr. Analyst Draws Analogies to 1970s Gold Market, Targets BTC $318,000


Crypto Briefing   -  4 years ago

 

A report by Citibank Managing Director Tom Fitzpatrick surfaced over the weekend, drawing strong fundamental analogies between bitcoin today, and the gold market of the 1970s. The report cites recent macro-economic events as analogous to closing the gold window in the early 1970s, and Bitcoin as "21st century gold", experiencing rapid monetization and financialization in response to structural macro changes.


Fitzpatrick goes on to analyze bitcoin's price cycles, and arrives at perhaps the largest medium term institutional price target we've seen for BTC: $318,000 by the end of 2021:

story image

tldr

  • This is reminiscent of Paul Tudor Jones' May 2020 Macro Outlook where he said "Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got in the business in 1976"
  • Fitzpatrick's analysis is interesting, given its mixture of both fundamental analysis of bitcoin's properties plus the macro backdrop, as well as technical price analysis.
  • This is yet another example of the rapid mainstreaming of Bitcoin on Wall St. that has been a hallmark of 2020.

Submitted by: G William Miller

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THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

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