Bitcoin Marketcap

$944B

Gold Marketcap

$10.50T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$13.48B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$50,763  📈

+$1,733

+3.53%


S&P 500

3,876  📉

-22.08

-0.57%


Gold

$1,726  📈

+$9.22

+0.54%


Silver

$26.71  📈

+$0.65

+2.51%


Euro

$1.2088  📈

+$0.01

+0.59%


Yen

¥106.86  📉

-¥0.01

-0.01%


Renminbi (CNY)

¥6.4596   

-¥0.01

-0.21%


Oil (WTI)

$59.96  📈

+$0.14

+0.23%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$944B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%


% Supply Issued

88.77%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$13.48B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$7.71B


Active Addresses

1.12M


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$45.7M


GBTC Premium

-2.06%


MSTR Premium

42.34%


BTC Down From ATH

13.02%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

16.00%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.05%  📈

+0.01

+25.00%


UST 2yr

0.14%  📉

-0.03

-17.65%


UST 10yr

1.44%  📉

-0.1

-6.49%


UST 30yr

2.17%  📉

-0.16

-6.87%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.07%  📈

+0

0%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

11.09x   

-0.33

-2.9%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

20.56x   

-0.77

-3.6%


BTC:Oil (price)

845.73x   

+28.45

+3.48%


Gold:Oil (price)

28.79x   

+0.13

+0.45%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$7.59T  📈

+$185B

+2.50%


M1 Money Supply

$6.81T  📈

+$13.80B

+0.20%


M2 Money Supply

$19.41T  📉

 

-0.68%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+478%

+5%

+26%

2 year:

+1,242%

+34%

+39%

3 year:

+340%

+31%

+44%

4 year:

+3,906%

+41%

+63%

5 year:

+12,456%

+36%

+94%

6 year:

+18,523%

+46%

+86%

7 year:

+7,465%

+28%

+107%

8 year:

+131,929%

+10%

+153%

9 year:

+1,033,083%

+1%

+186%

10 year:

+5,691,344%

+20%

+194%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$60,000

0

0

$50,648

6

0.14%

$50,000

6

0.14%

$40,000

25

0.56%

$30,000

60

1.35%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

Bridgewater Characterizes Bitcoin as 'option on a potential storehold of wealth'


 

Bridgewater Associates released a 14-page report [UPDATE: see it here] on Bitcoin as part of their daily newsletter (shared with CaseBitcoin), including comments from founder Ray Dalio. Dalio takes care to note his relative ignorance on bitcoin, but overall, his tone is one of appreciating bitcoin's fundamentals, yet remaining very cognizant of certain risks.

Mr. Dalio says "Bitcoin is one hell of an invention", and in further appreciation of bitcoin's core value proposition, he notes:

Because of what is going on in the world, besides there being a growing need for money or storehold of wealth assets that are limited in supply, there is also a growing need for assets that can be privately held.


But his overall tone is balanced. He highlights two specific risks which give him pause:

Although Bitcoin is limited in supply, digital currencies are not limited in supply because new ones have come along and will continue to come along to compete so the supply of Bitcoin like assets should, and competition will, play a role in determining Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices. [CaseBitcoin note: this is common bitcoin critique #6]

and:

When I a) put myself in the shoes of government officials, b) see their actions, and c) hear what they say, it is hard for me to imagine that they would allow Bitcoin (or gold) to be an obviously better choice than the money and credit that they are producing. [CaseBitcoin note: this is common bitcoin critique #2]

Dalio concludes his commentary by noting:

On the other hand, believe me when I tell you that I and my colleagues at Bridgewater are intently focusing on alternative storehold of wealth assets and expect Bridgewater to soon offer an alt-cash fund and a storehold of wealth fund in order to better deal with the devaluation of money and credit that we consider to be a major risk and opportunity, and Bitcoin won’t escape our scrutiny.


The letter goes on to provide an analysis of bitcoin's fundamental properties, benefits, risks, and market structure. Overall the piece provides a balanced assessment (though we would take issue with some of the commentary and analysis), and concludes by stating: 'Bitcoin, for now, feels more to us like an option on a potential storehold of wealth.'

tldr

  • Dalio's view on bitcoin has been evolving, and this represents continued evolution, in that he views BTC has having fundamental merit, yet remains concerned about a number of risks.
  • Critically, the final remarks in his letter leave the door wide open for Bridgewater to participate in bitcoin markets, and probably on the long side.
  • Bridgewater's characterization of bitcoin as 'an option on a potential storehold of wealth' is a reasonable one, and dovetails well with Lyn Alden's description of bitcoin as an 'emerging store of value'.

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THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

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