Bitcoin Marketcap

$928B

Gold Marketcap

$10.55T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$13.48B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$49,758  📈

+$930.11

+1.90%


S&P 500

3,876  📉

-22.08

-0.57%


Gold

$1,735  📈

+$14.96

+0.87%


Silver

$26.64  📈

+$0.45

+1.71%


Euro

$1.2080  📈

+$0.01

+0.47%


Yen

¥106.88  📈

+¥0.06

+0.05%


Renminbi (CNY)

¥6.4664   

-¥0.01

-0.09%


Oil (WTI)

$59.97  📉

-$0.02

-0.03%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$928B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.80%


% Supply Issued

88.77%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$13.48B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$7.56B


Active Addresses

1.12M


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$45.4M


GBTC Premium

-2.06%


MSTR Premium

42.34%


BTC Down From ATH

14.62%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

15.33%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.05%  📈

+0.01

+25.00%


UST 2yr

0.14%  📉

-0.03

-17.65%


UST 10yr

1.44%  📉

-0.1

-6.49%


UST 30yr

2.17%  📉

-0.16

-6.87%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.07%  📈

+0

0%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

11.37x   

-0.1

-0.9%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

20.92x   

-0.44

-2.07%


BTC:Oil (price)

829.90x   

+17.54

+2.16%


Gold:Oil (price)

28.87x   

+0.19

+0.66%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$7.59T  📈

+$185B

+2.50%


M1 Money Supply

$6.81T  📈

+$13.80B

+0.20%


M2 Money Supply

$19.41T  📉

 

-0.68%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+468%

+5%

+26%

2 year:

+1,218%

+34%

+39%

3 year:

+332%

+31%

+44%

4 year:

+3,834%

+41%

+63%

5 year:

+12,230%

+36%

+94%

6 year:

+18,185%

+47%

+86%

7 year:

+7,328%

+29%

+107%

8 year:

+129,533%

+10%

+153%

9 year:

+1,014,339%

+1%

+186%

10 year:

+5,588,090%

+21%

+194%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$50,000

6

0.14%

$49,758

6

0.14%

$40,000

25

0.56%

$30,000

60

1.35%

$20,000

77

1.73%

$10,000

382

8.60%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

A Thesis for Institutional Investment


 

Messari takes a macro-oriented and data-driven approach to making a very strong investment case for Bitcoin, culminating in a comparison to gold which suggests a 6300% upside potential:

story image


The core thesis is build around the observations that:

  • Bitcoin is experiencing institutionalization via various investment products, futures, lending instruments, etc
  • Bitcoin is increasingly relevant on the macro-stage as a new asset class
  • Central bank monetary policy, accelerated by Covid-19, amplifies bitcoin's value prop and accelerates market adoption
  • The current political environment is consistent with the end of debt-supercycles, and the consequent rise of MMT creates an environment where bitcoin can thrive.

tldr

The investment case for bitcoin is especially strong right now, because:

  • Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class (more tools and financial instruments that institutions can use)
  • The broad macro environment is highly supportive, with long-term debt super-cycle trends accelerated by Covid-19
  • Bitcoin's upside is tremendous relative to other store-of-value assets (such as gold), given that it's starting from a much smaller base.

Are we missing a recent story that makes the case for bitcoin?

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THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR BITCOIN

All you need to read to understand the investment case for bitcoin.

Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in 1976

- Paul Tudor Jones, Hedge Fund Manager

Frankly, if the gold bet works, the bitcoin bet will probably work better

- Stanley Druckenmiller - hedge fund manager

Bitcoin is a technological tour de force

- Bill Gates, Founder - Microsoft

[people] use [bitcoin] more as an alternative to gold. It’s a speculative store of value.

- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman

There are 3 eras of currency: commodity based, politically based, and now, math based.

- Chris Dixon - Tech Investor, A16Z

Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money.

- Paul Buchheit - Gmail Creator

If they become widely accepted, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money.

- European Central Bank - 2012

Bitcoin is Gold 2.0, a huge, huge deal.

- Chamath Palihapitiya - Founder & CEO Social Capital

I think every major bank, every major investment bank, every major high net worth firm is going to eventually have some exposure to bitcoin or what’s like it

- Bill Miller - Former Chainman & CIO, Legg Mason Capital

Bitcoin is money, everything else is credit.

- JP Morgan - 1912

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