Bitcoin Marketcap

$784B

Gold Marketcap

$11.03T

BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$4.39B

BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%

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KEY MARKETS

24hr change

Bitcoin

$41,739  πŸ“ˆ

+$208.24

+0.50%


S&P 500

4,396  πŸ“‰

-2.8

-0.06%


Gold

$1,814  πŸ“‰

-$0.67

-0.04%


Silver

$25.48  πŸ“ˆ

-$0

-0%


Euro

$1.1867  πŸ“ˆ

+$0

0%


Yen

Β₯109.69  πŸ“‰

-Β₯0.01

-0.01%


Renminbi (CNY)

Β₯6.4615   

+Β₯0

0%


Oil (WTI)

$73.65  πŸ“‰

-$0.1

-0.14%


BITCOIN STATS

Bitcoin Marketcap

$784B


BTC Inflation Rate (next 1yr)

1.79%


% Supply Issued

89.39%


BTC Settlement Volume (24hr)

$4.39B


Real Exchange Volume (24hr)

$4.31B


Active Addresses

720,022


Mining Reward Value (24hr)

$38.2M


GBTC Premium

-6.72%


MSTR Premium

39.08%


BTC Down From ATH

35.37%


BTC Up From Cycle Low

42.73%


RATES & YIELDS

24hr change

UST 3mo

0.06%  πŸ“ˆ

+0.01

+20.00%


UST 2yr

0.20%  πŸ“ˆ

+0

0%


UST 10yr

1.26%  πŸ“ˆ

+0.01

+0.80%


UST 30yr

1.90%  πŸ“ˆ

+0.01

+0.53%


Fed Funds (EFFR)

0.10%  πŸ“ˆ

+0

0%


US 10yr Breakeven Inflation

2.40%  πŸ“‰

-0.03

-1.23%


Real Rate (10yr)

-1.14%  πŸ“‰

+0.03

+-2.56%


RATIOS

24hr change

Gold:BTC (marketcap)

14.08x   

-0.08

-0.55%


M2:BTC (marketcap)

26.02x   

-0.14

-0.55%


BTC:Oil (price)

566.89x   

+3.94

+0.70%


Gold:Oil (price)

24.63x   

+0.03

+0.12%


US GOVERNMENT STATS

30-day change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

$8.22T  πŸ“ˆ

+$143B

+1.77%


M1 Money Supply

$19.27T  πŸ“ˆ

+$46.40B

+0.24%


M2 Money Supply

$20.39T  πŸ“ˆ

+$18.80B

+0.09%


BTC ROI

Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD)

BTC vs Traditional Assets ROI:

 

Bitcoin

Gold

S&P 500

1 year:

+261%

-9%

+34%

2 year:

+291%

+25%

+53%

3 year:

+451%

+49%

+55%

4 year:

+1,421%

+42%

+77%

5 year:

+7,472%

+33%

+104%

6 year:

+14,751%

+67%

+109%

7 year:

+7,008%

+40%

+127%

8 year:

+43,524%

+38%

+157%

9 year:

+386,375%

+13%

+219%

10 year:

+416,938%

+10%

+266%

Data Source: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This shows bitcoin's ROI vs other potential inflation hedge assets.

Why it matters: As with the historical bitcoin price table, we see bitcoin's extreme outperformance vs other assets here as well. Bitcoin's relatively small size, plus fundamental properties, yield extreme outperformance when even relatively small funds-flows find their way to BTC.

BTC DAYS ABOVE PRICE

Bitcoin Price Closing History by Level

Days Bitcoin Closed Above:

Price

Days Above

% of Bitcoin's Life

$50,000

73

1.59%

$41,747

101

2.20%

$40,000

109

2.37%

$30,000

210

4.57%

$20,000

228

4.97%

$10,000

533

11.61%

Data Sources: Messari.io, bitcoincharts.com

What is it: This the number of days in which bitcoin "closed" (trading level at midnight UTC) above various price levels.

Why it matters: This can give a sense of where bitcoin is currently trading relative to past cycles.

SHARPE 5yr

DOUBLING TIME

Critique #7: Bitcoin is a Bubble

<< back to all critiques

critique:  Like tulip-bulbs hundreds of years ago, Bitcoin is a retail mania, and it will collapse.

rebuttal:  Bitcoin has experienced four major cycles of massive 1000%+ appreciation, followed by deep drawdowns of more than 80%. Each cycle has started from a much higher price than the previous one. This is not a characteristic of one-time manias. Bitcoin's price, as well as fundamental adoption numbers, are increasing dramatically over multi-year timeframes.

It is a common refrain from people ignorant of both bitcoin, as well the dutch tulip bubble, to refer to bitcoin as "tulips". The tulip bubble was a one-time event, lasting a couple months at manic prices, and affecting relatively few people. Bitcoin, by sharp contrast, is exhibiting growth characteristics - both in price and adoption metrics - similar to an increasingly dominant tech company or protocol.

Another thrust of this argument centers around the fact that bitcoin has no cash flow (like bonds) or expected cash flow (like stocks), and that therefore it's worthless, or at least massively overvalued. This is essentially the same as the "no intrinsic value" critique, as it ignores fundamental properties that humans demand and therefore assign value.